ANALYSIS Washington's sweeping ban on Chinese humanoid robots landed the same week that Chinese autonomous-vehicle firms secured new footholds in London and Berlin, and Chinese AI models extended their lead in global inference volume — exposing a widening gap between America's decoupling ambitions and the reality taking shape in allied markets.
Why it matters
The FCC added foreign-produced "advanced robotic devices" to its Covered List on Tuesday, blocking new humanoid and quadruped models from obtaining the authorization required for import and sale in the United States1,5. FCC chairperson Brendan Carr said the move was to "secure America's critical supply chains" and warned that the devices "could create supply chain vulnerabilities that could disrupt U.S. economic and national security and could create a cybersecurity risk that threatened American critical infrastructure"14. Chinese companies accounted for roughly 85% of humanoid deployments globally last year15, and of about 15,000 humanoid robots shipped worldwide in 2025, AGIBOT and Unitree each shipped more than 5,000, while Tesla and Figure AI each shipped a few hundred or less. ◆ The ban therefore targets the dominant suppliers in a market where U.S. incumbents remain marginal producers.
The big picture
The robot ban is the latest in a pattern of U.S. restrictions on connected Chinese technologies, following earlier measures against drones and routers12. The House of Representatives has also passed NDAA provisions restricting the Pentagon from deploying Chinese-made humanoid robots2. The FCC retains authority to revoke authorizations for products already approved for sale. Counterpoint Research principal analyst Soumen Mandal said: "The AI battle between the US and China continues to rage on as the Trump Administration has banned new Chinese humanoid robots for sale in the United States. The timing is likely not an accident as several of China's humanoid manufacturers are preparing to IPO this year. US companies such as Tesla, Figure and Boston Dynamics greatly benefit from this news"8.
But the restrictions also risk disrupting U.S.-China technology partnerships. Unitree recently partnered with Nvidia to integrate Nvidia's Blackwell platform into its robots, and Nvidia said Unitree's largest customers are U.S. academic and research institutions. Nvidia revealed a humanoid robot reference design in June that uses Unitree's chassis. ANALYSIS The ban thus cuts across an active commercial relationship between America's most valuable chipmaker and China's leading robot manufacturer.
Between the lines
While Washington closes its market, European capitals are opening theirs. Baidu's Apollo Go began testing its robotaxis on London streets on July 28 in partnership with Freenow by Lyft, joining Waymo and Wayve in an increasingly competitive autonomous-vehicle proving ground4,10. Freenow by Lyft chief executive Thomas Zimmermann said the priority is "ensuring autonomous technology supports professional drivers", with passenger service hoped for in 2027. Separately, Momenta received a testing permit from Germany's Federal Motor Transport Authority allowing Level 4 autonomous-driving tests on urban roads across the country — the first Chinese company to obtain such nationwide authorization in Germany7,11. Momenta, which has partnerships with Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and the Volkswagen Group, saw Uber increase its investment during the company's Hong Kong IPO placement, bringing Uber's total holding to about 1.19 million shares.
ANALYSIS German and British regulators are granting Chinese autonomous-driving firms the road access that validates their technology for broader deployment, even as the U.S. blocks Chinese hardware at the border. Uber's deepening stake in Momenta further complicates the decoupling narrative: a major U.S. platform is investing in the same Chinese autonomy stack that Washington's security apparatus views with suspicion.
The divergence extends beyond hardware. Chinese AI models now hold 63.5% of global inference calls versus 35.5% for U.S. models over a 28-day period ending July 26, with the top five models by token volume all Chinese3. Xiaomi's MiMo-V2.5 leads at 10.5 trillion weekly tokens, the only model exceeding 10 trillion per week. ◆ Inference volume — the measure of how much the world actually uses a model — is a metric the FCC's Covered List cannot reach. Software crosses borders that hardware cannot.
Beijing's response was pointed. Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said China "firmly opposed the US overstretching the concept of national security to suppress Chinese companies" and warned that Beijing will take "necessary measures" to safeguard Chinese firms' interests9. China's embassy in Washington called on the U.S. to "abandon its hegemonic mindset and stop smearing Chinese companies and threatening them with sanctions". Morgan Stanley analysts forecast China's humanoid robot market could reach $15 billion by 2030. ◆ With that trajectory and dominant market share, the commercial incentive for non-U.S. markets to remain open to Chinese robotics is substantial.
What's next
The measures are likely to test relations ahead of a planned U.S. visit by Chinese leader Xi Jinping to meet with President Trump in September. The FCC is expected to exempt many non-Chinese suppliers from the restrictions, consistent with its approach in recent bans on foreign drones and routers. Momenta's Germany-wide permit and Baidu's London trials are proceeding on their own regulatory tracks. ◆ The early signals from London and Berlin suggest that, for now, decoupling in AI and robotics remains a largely unilateral American project.