AMD has projected approximately $17 billion in revenue for Q4 2026, compared to Intel's guidance of $15 billion to $16 billion, a gap that would make AMD the larger x86 processor vendor by revenue for the first time1.
Intel's guidance fell dramatically short of Wall Street's $17.1 billion estimate, triggering a 28% single-session stock decline after the company reported third-quarter results2. The shortfall stems largely from a severe downturn in PC sales: Intel's management noted that PC unit shipments are expected to drop roughly 12% in 2026 and another 10% in 2027 as consumer and enterprise budgets shrink. Roughly half of Intel's revenue depends on PC demand.
Intel's earnings themselves beat expectations, rising 126% year over year, but the forward guidance overshadowed that result. AMD shares were also dragged down in sympathy with Intel's post-earnings plunge, despite the two companies' diverging trajectories.
AMD's data center business is now its largest segment, distinguishing it from Intel's heavier reliance on the PC market.
ANALYSIS The revenue crossover, if it materializes, would be driven less by AMD gaining PC share than by Intel losing ground in a segment that still accounts for about half its top line, while AMD draws a growing share from data center demand tied to AI and cloud workloads.
The projected Q4 figures have not yet been reported as actuals; AMD's forecast of approximately $17 billion and Intel's $15 billion to $16 billion range remain forward guidance.