ASML said on October 14 that AI-driven demand for its semiconductor lithography equipment is so strong it will be unable to fully meet customer orders in 2027 or 2028, even after planned capacity expansions1,2. The Dutch company raised its full-year sales guidance for the third time in 2026, projecting annual revenue of €44 billion to €45 billion ($49.3 billion to $50.4 billion), up from prior guidance of €43 billion to €45 billion, with gross margin expected at roughly 56%, compared with a previous range of 54% to 56%3,4.
Demand stretches past the decade's midpoint
CEO Christophe Fouquet said customer discussions are now extending beyond 2027, with some buyers expressing interest in booking capacity for 2029 and 2030. "Many of our discussions with our customers are now shifting, in fact, beyond 2027," Fouquet said. ASML had announced in July plans to increase capacity by 30 percent in 2027 and another 30 percent in 2028, but Fouquet said that would not be enough. The company said it is exploring ways to expand production further.
ASML forecast fourth-quarter 2026 sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion ($15.9 billion to $17.0 billion), above analyst expectations of €14.19 billion. In the third quarter, the company sold more than 120 lithography machines, up from just over 70 in the same period a year earlier6. Total Q3 net sales reached €11.7 billion.
Who is buying
ASML's customers include TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, Micron, and Apple, all of which have committed billions to expand manufacturing capacity to meet AI and broader semiconductor demand. Fouquet attributed the demand surge primarily to customers' views on the size and duration of AI-related investments.
ASML shares rose more than 2 percent in Amsterdam on the day, consolidating the company's position as Europe's most valuable listed company. The stock has gained more than 80 percent over the past 12 months.
ANALYSIS A multi-year supply shortfall at the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment constrains the pace at which chipmakers can add advanced fabrication capacity, creating a bottleneck that sits upstream of every leading-edge AI chip. The earlier customers lock in delivery slots, the less flexibility remains for new entrants or latecomers to the AI infrastructure buildout. ASML's third guidance raise in a single year, paired with order interest now reaching 2030, points to a demand curve that has outrun even aggressive expansion plans.