Kalshi traders now see nearly an 80% chance that Anthropic will announce its IPO before January, with odds of a pre-November announcement jumping from 4.7% on September 28 to 16% by Wednesday afternoon7. The prediction-market shift follows a week of reporting on the company's confidential S-1, which disclosed that Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion via convertible notes to help finance a $125.2 billion, five-year TPU lease commitment6. The Broadcom arrangement stands out among the extensive partnerships with big-tech firms documented in the filing.
The convertible-note facility adds a new dimension to the capital picture laid out in Anthropic's confidential S-1, which was prepared in June and circulated with a small group of partners in recent days3,4. Reuters and Financial Times reviewed the prospectus, which projects a public offering that could value Anthropic at more than $2 trillion while warning investors that advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity"1,14. At that valuation, the listing could overtake SpaceX as the largest IPO in history. Anthropic has picked Nasdaq as its listing venue5. An analyst noted that for companies expected to rank among the top 40 or 50 in the market, rapid inclusion into Nasdaq indexes can generate "tens of billions of dollars of index related demand".
Losses, revenue, and locked-in spending
Anthropic reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, including a roughly $34 billion accounting charge tied largely to earlier financing11. Revenue grew 12-fold to nearly $4.6 billion, even as the operating loss widened to $8.06 billion from $2.98 billion a year earlier9. The company spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure, accounting for more than half of its $12.65 billion in total operating expenses.
The filing commits Anthropic to at least $518 billion in cloud, computing, and infrastructure obligations over a decade with six partners, with approximately 80% non-cancelable or payable regardless of usage13. Separately, the prospectus disclosed agreements to pay SpaceX up to $84.5 billion to use its Nvidia Corp.-based compute through 2029, with most of that amount cancellable on 90 days' notice12. Amazon and Google have invested billions in Anthropic and supply much of the cloud infrastructure it uses to train and run Claude.
The company had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $20.28 billion as of December 31. Close to a quarter of its revenue came from just two clients.
Risk disclosure and timing
Anthropic devoted almost a third of its S-1 to detailing "risk factors". The company said increasingly advanced AI models could manipulate, blackmail, and exhibit other unpredictable behaviors. The filing stated that its "development of highly advanced models, platforms, and applications and expansion of use cases could further increase the risk that our models cause harm". Reuters reported that a listing is likely to come after the November midterm elections. The Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic could debut as soon as October and raise up to $100 billion via the offering. Kalshi traders see a greater than 60% chance an IPO is announced before December.
The expected valuation target of more than $2 trillion is more than double Anthropic's estimated valuation of $965 billion four months ago. Anthropic has indicated it plans to beat rival OpenAI to the public markets. OpenAI is separately in talks to raise at least $30 billion in a pre-IPO funding round at a roughly $1.4 trillion pre-money valuation[1].
ANALYSIS The Broadcom convertible-note facility, sized to match the company's entire 2025 net loss, effectively creates a dedicated funding channel for Anthropic's TPU lease obligations. Combined with the SpaceX compute deal's 90-day cancellation window, it gives Anthropic two structurally different levers for managing its infrastructure commitments: one locked in via convertible debt, the other flexible by design. The extreme customer concentration, with nearly a quarter of revenue from two clients, remains a counterweight to the scale of these commitments.