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MiniMax Revenue Surges 283% but Trails Full-Year Forecast Pace

MiniMax Group Inc posted H1 2026 revenue of $116.6 million, up 283% YoY, but the total covers only 32% of full-year analyst estimates amid model…

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MiniMax Group Inc posted first-half 2026 revenue of approximately $116.6 million, a 283% year-over-year increase, powered by a 700% jump in its enterprise business1,2. The growth rate accelerated from the 159% year-over-year expansion MiniMax recorded for full-year 2025.

Despite the acceleration, the Shanghai-based AI company's H1 revenue accounted for roughly 32% of the $363.77 million analysts expect for full-year 2026, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. ANALYSIS Reaching the full-year consensus would require MiniMax to more than double its first-half total in the second half, implying the company needs a sharp sequential ramp to satisfy Street expectations.

The revenue surge comes as MiniMax trails competitors on the model front. MiniMax M3 lags behind rivals including Z.ai's GLM-5.2 Full Open Source, according to Bloomberg. MiniMax has been behind peers such as Z.ai in releasing top-tier large language models.

ANALYSIS The divergence between MiniMax's commercial traction and its model-capability standing highlights a tension: rapid revenue growth, particularly in enterprise, has not depended on fielding the most competitive frontier model. Whether that dynamic holds as Chinese AI competition intensifies is the central question facing the company in the second half.

MiniMax's results land amid heavy capital deployment across China's AI sector. Alibaba Group Holding reported $10 billion in capital expenditure in the June quarter, driven primarily by AI infrastructure investment ctx. MiniMax's first-half revenue is a fraction of the spending by larger Chinese tech incumbents, underscoring the scale gap between the startup and established players funding the same competitive landscape.

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